Market meanders in low volume ambiguity
1st September: The little wedges that we saw last week have defied gravity with the market rallying, rather than falling. So much for short term predictions. We are now in another ambiguous situation: volume is weak but new lows are few. A rising market on shriveling volume gives a good chance for a rapid plunge. But the modest level of new lows on the NYSE gives a chance that the current short term bull market will continue.
On the long term perspective, the most compelling chart is not that of the S&P 500 nor the Dow, but, rather, the NYA, the NYSE Composite. The log chart for this index shows a very compelling double support at 7,400 towards the end of this year. Of course, that's just a scenario. Nothing indicates that the market will fall the necessary 15% to reach that support.
HSI
Index regains support at 21,000
1st September: Support at 21,000 is restored for the time being. The short term bottom for Cheung Kong gives a hint at a possible bottom for the stock and if so, the market. But it's too early to say.
NIKKEI
Index heading for previous lows
1st September: The index is struggling with resistance as shown in the first chart. The bearish target of the ETF chart looks quite clear.
Current prediction
Long term: double top (daily) points to 11,200 (log), 10,300 (daily)
KLCI
Bearish targets confirmed
1st September: No change: 910 here we come - unless the log chart holds a more powerful support at 1,000.
Current prediction
Medium term: 1. head and shoulders top daily chart points to 910 (log), 830
(arithmetic)
2. head and shoulders top weekly chart points to 930 (log), 860
(arithmetic)
Long term: none
SGX
New low adds fuel to the bear: 2,500 support likely
1st September: More bearish evidence as the index makes a lower low, both on the daily and weekly charts.
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