21.1.11

Beginning of the End?


Yesterday was a significant day in financial markets. Although stock markets across the globe weren't badly affected (Europe markets were the relatively underperformer).

However commodity markets were severely affected. energy decreased more than 2% and precious metal decreased more than 1%.

The most important indicator, copper, gave up more than 2% as well.

Bearish sentiments are all around every corner. Although firms' earnings are good, they are past data. Quantitative easing 2 (QE2) is not likely to save the economy from going south.

From technical, financial and economics point of view, there is no way the stock markets can maintain at current level. The contraction or at least correction that were predicted by many analyst last year is still pending. All we got last year was some small downs and mostly marginally increases.

Unemployment stay high across the developed nations, China inflationary pressure and artificial expansion of monetary aggregates. All of these can only lead to lower stock markets.

So, can we gain from all these?

(1) Hold as many money in risk free (or minimum risk) assets as possible.

(2) Invest in dividend yield firms in minimum exposure markets (such as New Zealand or Indonesia).

(3) Short the over inflated markets (almost every markets lol)

(4) Wait to buy any commodities when the prices are reasonable (I prefer silver and sugar)

Just think for a second: markets around the world has risen at least 100% from their lows and at most 40% of their high in 2007 but the economy are going nowhere in the past 3 years (at least for developed nations). How can stock markets keep getting better??