28.8.10

When Will Bernanke Stop

3 years after the high of stock markets in November 2007, 2 years after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, and trillions of dollars used to "save" the financial systems and economy, Ben Bernanke still think that is not enough.

Helicopter Ben are ready to throw in more money into the system to "help" the economy.

I think he is a shame to the field of economics and a shame to MIT, the institution that granted him a PHD in 1979.

How stupid is he?! Which theory is he using? How can a continuous expansionary monetary policy save the economy.

US interest rate already at 0% (well theoretically it is 0% to 0.25% but we all know all the banks will get 0%), what can you do with an economy that have 0% interest rate and high unemployment rate?

Create more money with 0% interest will only contribute to higher inflation. Even a degree level economics student know that but a PHD in economics from MIT can't see that!

one million dollar question: how much money created by Federal Reserve and Commercial banks in US? Money supply in US is now harder than rocket science. I truly believe if Feds announce the M3 in US, gold will shoot up to at least $10,000 per ounce and silver will go to $750 per ounce.

Let us look at US economy in term of macroeconomics objectives.

1. High but sustainability GDP growth - Fail. US GDP growth is horrendous. US GDP just came out of negative growth as government and Feds artificially pump up the economy with easy money.

2. Full employment - Fail. US unemployment rate is at 9.6%, highest rate in real term since the 1933 and highest ever in nominal term.

3. Price stability - Fail. Although official US inflation rate is at a very moderate growth and even have the risk of deflation, we all know that the actual inflation rate is much higher than that figures. With such a crazy amount of money created by Feds, it is impossible inflation rate can remain that low.

4. External balance - Fail. US domestic (government) deficit and external (international) deficit are unsustainable. Latest (2009) current account balance for US is $380 billions. That mean last year alone, US spend $380 billions more in international trading and where is that $380 billions come from? Yes, debt from China, Japan, middle east, Russia and countless countries that are debtor of US.

5. Sound currency - Fail. everybody knows that US dollar is dead. It will be replaced by other currencies such as Euro, Yen and RMB. The depreciation of US$ theoretically can boost export and reduce import but US current account deficit prove that US is still importing in a huge quantity. So depreciation of currency make it worse.

6. Equitable distribution of wealth - Fail. Just look at the bonus of banks' executives and look at the underpaid people in Mississippi, Alabama and Arkansas. US fail miserably in this area and the so called "capitalism" is just a term to discriminate the poor.

7. Increasing Productivity - Arguable. According to US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US labor productivity is higher than East Asia countries (japan, China, South Korea, Hong Kong etc.) and Eurozone (including France and Germany). However look at export and GDP growth of US suggest otherwise.

Wow! By analyzing US economy we will see how terrible it is. Fail in 6 out of 7 macroeconomics objectives!

1 comment:

Paras Tierea The Rize said...

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