Are You Ready?

Last year, almost all Economists, Analysts, Leaders, bankers, financial program hosts, billionaires, columnists, critics, journalists, blog writers, investors, speculators, traders, CNBC team (Jim Cramer, Larry Kudlow, Fast Money gang......), and everybody else said this economic slow down is the worst since Great Depression 1929 and world war 2.

For those of you who does not know much about The Great Depression, you will misunderstand what those people mean.

Most of us think Great Depression ended at 1933 but actually world economic did not recover fully until end of world war 2 so we can even paired Great Depression and World War 2 together as the single most destructive economic problem in the history of earth.

So here we are in August of 2009, around 6/7 quarters of economic misery (slow down started at last quarter of 2007 but some argue recession started at first quarter 2008), suddenly every thing is going fine. We can 1-2 month of crazy surge in stock market and those people that told us "this is the time since GD" suddenly say "we are recovering".

Some Asia country recorded really strong GDP figure such as S. Korea, China and Singapore while western countries such as England and US still show weak GDP data.

So how can one of the worst recession or even depression in human history only lasted for 6/7 quarters?

Well you may say it's the wisdom of world economic leaders that save the world.

However I don't agree at all. Can you tell me what our Leaders did for the past 6-7 quarters?

Appeared on TV and said "the recession is worse than we thought and we need stimulus"

In other word, our leaders only spent huge amount of money.

So if Spending a lot of money is the cure, then why should this problem called the worst recession since GD 1929?

So what I mean is either this recession is not a problem at all or we haven't solve our problem at all. I prefer the second.

Spending money led us to this recession and spending money will lead us out? How stuopid do we need to be to suggest this.

From 1500 to 1929, every country in the world who used Adam Smith's free market or laissez-faire system only experienced 1 major economic crash while from 1929 to 2009, we had at least 5 major economic crashes.

You must be wondered what happened in 1929 that led to a series of economic crisis (except Great Depression, of course). Yes, Keynesian theory of economics created.

So back to our topic, if you think the worst economic crisis since GD 1929 end now after only 6-7 quarters, buy!

However if you think the worst economic crisis since GD 1929 will last longer than 6-7 quarters, the get ready to short. Collect it from time to time. You will be rewarded.