When will US economy recover? this is the 1 million dollar question that every economist, investor, trader, fund manager, just about everybody in the world try to get the answer.
August last year(17/08/2007) when sub prime crisis started, many journalists and traders said it is just a small problem for the mighty US economy. If you watch CNBC regularly then you will notice that Erin Burnett, Jim Cramer and other CNBC people said about sub prime problem is a opportunity to buy!
Then came October last year when Dow at all time high of around 14100, everybody is talking about economic nirvana, greatest story never told and super bull stampede!
Then disaster happened on November and December. Stock market all over the world start dropping and again, many "expert" on CNBC and Bloomberg shouted that this is the life time opportunity to grab some under priced stock. Somehow most of them liked financial stocks.
Early this year again stock market tumbled and again they said worst is over......
So more than 1 year after sub prime crisis, people started to realize this is no regular bubble. This bubble is so big and it's probably the biggest we ever had.
Back to the 1 million dollar question, now everybody on CNBC and Bloomberg again forecast we will have bottom on end of next year or early 2010 and some folks actually believe them. They have been wrong for a year and if you still believe them, you are in real trouble.
I have read many Analyst report, watch CNBC and Bloomberg all the time and only agree to 3 people: Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff and Marc Faber because they have the guts to tell you the truth.
What if the answer of that question is US economy can't and won't recover?
Throughout last century world economy never had a crisis that can't recover and we all assume that this crisis is just like others. It's almost like we never had bad illness and suddenly we have a cool and we assume we will heal very soon. However that cool maybe is the early symptom of a AIDS and other disease that gonna kill us?
In other word, US economy may recover and may not.
So the real question you should ask yourself is this: WILL US ECONOMY RECOVER?
5 comments:
The person who wrote this is uneducated and is a disservice to this country. Don't believe this person!
Well who ever you are, here what i wanna say to you.
I write all my stuff based on many research and proof i collected over many years and i just tell you want i think.
Every time i write something i will put some facts or proof to back my point and i certainly welcome anybody who like to share or argue with with me as economic is a study of human behavior so it could be this way or another.
However i certainly won't appreciate some thing like this. If you got a point, prove me wrong!
Hi RU, yes, IT IS NOT OVER ... will NOT be over in a yr or two. Whether US economy will recover or not, depending on how OBAMA and his team concerted to revive it. SAVINGS ... NOT pumping in more monies into the toxic financial institutions. SO, in away I agreed with u, while observing how BAD US economy would affect Asia-Pacific, particularly Malaysia.
Just my pointers. All of us deserve our rights to differ.
TEH
CP,
I appreciate your comment and certainly agree with you.
I just not so appreciate comment like that in my blog without any proof or argument.
Yes, everything depend on what Obama does but from his view on Auto industry, things not looking good.
Either US will end up like Zimbabwe or not, we'll see
RU,
welcome. I m just pointing out my views and my beliefs. We hv similar waves length in term of US crisis and we shall see WHAT OBAMA capable of handling these issues. He is NOT financial/economic person, so he NEEDS to get a GOOD team, who wont dump in more money. Or worse still, continue to PRINT money to pay debts? Haha. Silly, even un-educated person like me could understand Hehe.
Cheers.
TEH
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