29.11.08
Most Ridiculous Thing Ever
This is a clips of Peter Schiff answering questions about Barack Obama with two stupid CNBC host.
Near the end of this video, the lady actually said the most ridiculous I have ever heard in my life:
Gold has no value!!!!!
Can you believe a person in this world thinks gold has no value? yes you can now since she is working in CNBC now
28.11.08
Should Malaysia Introduce Short Selling?
Today, short selling activity is allowed in most stock market and in the world as it makes trading stock more versatile. If short selling is not allowed, you can't earn profit when market is moving lower unless you buy put option, put warrant or something similar. It actually makes your risk of losing money become even higher as you know you will lose money if market plunge.
For Malaysia, it become even worse. There are no put option nor put warrant listed on Kuala Lumpur stock exchange. That's mean the only way we can have profit is when market surge.
To really answer should Malaysia introduce short selling, we have to understand what is short selling and its effect on stock market and economic. Generally short selling means selling stock we don't have and buy it back later with hope that we can buy it at lower price. It effectively make stock market become more like derivative market or forex market. Yes it will make stock market more volatile but it greatly make market more relevant.
So what is the benefit of short selling?
short-selling help adjust price to the correct value. The efficient market hypothesis is based on the assumption (as well as many other assumptions) that short-selling is possible. While I don't believe in the efficient market hypothesis for other reasons (that is, many of those other assumptions are wrong), it is correct in noting that the ability to sell short helps move markets closer to that ideal.
If a certain stock (or other asset) is overvalued, yet the people who realize this have already gotten out of the stock, then the way for them to correct this overvaluation is to sell the stock short. That way, these informed investors can bring the price closer to its fair value. But if short-selling is banned, this kind of adjustment can't take place.
That mean we won't have crazy stock price trade at more than 100x PE and still going up everyday. Somebody will stop the market maker from doing it. In Malaysia case, Remember Iris?
Another aspect of this is that people who for some reason believe a certain stock is too cheap can use their money or even borrowed money to buy stocks they think are too cheap. Yet people who come to the conclusion that a certain stock is overvalued can't do anything about it unless they already owned the stock in the absence of short-selling. And even those that already owned the stock are limited to their stocks, while people bullish about the stock could possibly borrow to buy more of it. This creates an asymmetric situation where people bullish about a stock will have much greater influence than those that are bearish about it, which increases the risk that some stocks will be over-valued.
Like I said before, short selling never push the market lower because short selling activity create buying activity as short seller need to cover their position. Plus, if a company is doing good, no body will allowed short seller to destroy it's price. Bargain hunter will rush in. In other word, short selling help adjust a stock to its fair value price. If Citigroup is traded at 7.05, that's because it only worth 7.05 or less if government didn't guarantee their 300 billion bad debt.
Besides that, stock market that banned short selling generally have higher PE ratio than stock market that allowed short selling simply because people who think market is overvalued can't sell any stock without buying it first. However if they think market is overvalued, why should they buy in the first place. So only people that buy is those people who bullish about the market and won't sell it anytime soon. This create a situation we called a bubble. it make the stock market irrelevant and highly increase chances of financial crisis. So in longer term, short selling actually prevent those thing.
Overall I think short selling should allowed in all stock market including Malaysia as short selling help price adjust faster to its fair value. If a stock is worth 10 Ringgit, let the market force adjust it to 10 ringgit. Don't interrupt the free market and only allow price to go higher.
So what is the benefit of short selling?
short-selling help adjust price to the correct value. The efficient market hypothesis is based on the assumption (as well as many other assumptions) that short-selling is possible. While I don't believe in the efficient market hypothesis for other reasons (that is, many of those other assumptions are wrong), it is correct in noting that the ability to sell short helps move markets closer to that ideal.
If a certain stock (or other asset) is overvalued, yet the people who realize this have already gotten out of the stock, then the way for them to correct this overvaluation is to sell the stock short. That way, these informed investors can bring the price closer to its fair value. But if short-selling is banned, this kind of adjustment can't take place.
That mean we won't have crazy stock price trade at more than 100x PE and still going up everyday. Somebody will stop the market maker from doing it. In Malaysia case, Remember Iris?
Another aspect of this is that people who for some reason believe a certain stock is too cheap can use their money or even borrowed money to buy stocks they think are too cheap. Yet people who come to the conclusion that a certain stock is overvalued can't do anything about it unless they already owned the stock in the absence of short-selling. And even those that already owned the stock are limited to their stocks, while people bullish about the stock could possibly borrow to buy more of it. This creates an asymmetric situation where people bullish about a stock will have much greater influence than those that are bearish about it, which increases the risk that some stocks will be over-valued.
Like I said before, short selling never push the market lower because short selling activity create buying activity as short seller need to cover their position. Plus, if a company is doing good, no body will allowed short seller to destroy it's price. Bargain hunter will rush in. In other word, short selling help adjust a stock to its fair value price. If Citigroup is traded at 7.05, that's because it only worth 7.05 or less if government didn't guarantee their 300 billion bad debt.
Besides that, stock market that banned short selling generally have higher PE ratio than stock market that allowed short selling simply because people who think market is overvalued can't sell any stock without buying it first. However if they think market is overvalued, why should they buy in the first place. So only people that buy is those people who bullish about the market and won't sell it anytime soon. This create a situation we called a bubble. it make the stock market irrelevant and highly increase chances of financial crisis. So in longer term, short selling actually prevent those thing.
Overall I think short selling should allowed in all stock market including Malaysia as short selling help price adjust faster to its fair value. If a stock is worth 10 Ringgit, let the market force adjust it to 10 ringgit. Don't interrupt the free market and only allow price to go higher.
27.11.08
Clear All Your Position!
For those who follow my call, clear all your position as soon as possible
Beware!
Ready To Take Your Profit?
Few days ago I recommend few stocks to you and as i very bearish man, that's my first buy recommendation.
Although stock market around the world rebound hard(Dow hike more than 1000 point in 4 days), some of my stocks are doing even better so i will review it and see what happen.
2899 HK Zijin Mining.
Its price was 2.24 when i recommended it and yesterday closing was 2.59.(0.35/15.6%). Keep it.
2600 HK Chalco
Our second largest mining company in the world is doing fine as well. Its price was 2.90 when i recommended it and yesterday closing was 3.19 (0.29/10%). Look for a good price to exit trade soon.
0016 HK SHK Prop.
Its price was 52 when i recommended it and yesterday closing was 57.25 (5.25/10%). Continue the hike!
BHP ASX BHP Biliton.
Its price was 21.90 when i recommended it and now it's trading at 28.58 (6.68/30%). Rio Tinto really help it but you should get yourself out of this counter now and enjoy the profit.
CSCO NYSE Cisco.
Its price was 15.17 when i recommended it and yesterday closing was 16.39 (1.22/8%). Continue.
TSM NYSE Taiwan Semiconductor
Its price was 6.51 when i recommended it and yesterday closing was 7.19 (0.68/10.5%). Ride the hike.
I admit if you bought other counter such as C you will have higher return but all my recommendation is very safe and secure. You can choose between high risk/high return or moderate risk/moderate return. I choose the later.
Although stock market around the world rebound hard(Dow hike more than 1000 point in 4 days), some of my stocks are doing even better so i will review it and see what happen.
2899 HK Zijin Mining.
Its price was 2.24 when i recommended it and yesterday closing was 2.59.(0.35/15.6%). Keep it.
2600 HK Chalco
Our second largest mining company in the world is doing fine as well. Its price was 2.90 when i recommended it and yesterday closing was 3.19 (0.29/10%). Look for a good price to exit trade soon.
0016 HK SHK Prop.
Its price was 52 when i recommended it and yesterday closing was 57.25 (5.25/10%). Continue the hike!
BHP ASX BHP Biliton.
Its price was 21.90 when i recommended it and now it's trading at 28.58 (6.68/30%). Rio Tinto really help it but you should get yourself out of this counter now and enjoy the profit.
CSCO NYSE Cisco.
Its price was 15.17 when i recommended it and yesterday closing was 16.39 (1.22/8%). Continue.
TSM NYSE Taiwan Semiconductor
Its price was 6.51 when i recommended it and yesterday closing was 7.19 (0.68/10.5%). Ride the hike.
I admit if you bought other counter such as C you will have higher return but all my recommendation is very safe and secure. You can choose between high risk/high return or moderate risk/moderate return. I choose the later.
25.11.08
A Man Named America
This is the story of a man named America......
America came from a poor family. He was bullied by other kid when he was in his youth. His friend, Spain and Britain always bullied him and he lived in fear. Those friend took away his money and freedom.
However he didn't want that to happen so thanks to his brave heart and determination, he fought back. Eventually he succeed. Spain and Britain never bullied him anymore.
So he started to work hard since he knew the only man that can help him is none other than himself. He worked his ass off as an agriculture worker and started his own farm as he knew everybody need to eat.
He then earned a lot of money from agriculture industry. However he got a new idea. He thought agriculture is good but the earning from it is very thin. Soon, he started his manufacturing work and began to produce manufacturing goods. He opened his own factory and enhance his production line. His products were sold around the world and everybody seems to like it. He became the richest man in the world. He opened more factory and produced variety of goods to meet the demand of everyone.
Then he made the single biggest mistake of his life. He appointed his friend, Federal Reserve as his financial consultant and give him the full control over his account. At the beginning, Federal Reserve worked well so America trusted him even more and give him more power.
Then disaster struck. A new gangster group named axis started bully everyone around America including his old foe, Britain. This gangster group, led by a man called Germany wanted to conquer the whole neighborhood. So Britain came and asked America for help since America is very rich and powerful. Luckily though America had a very smart friend called Albert Einstein. Einstein help America Defeated Axis. Britain and America finally became friend again.
After that America began control the neighborhood using his wealth superiority. He didn't think manufacturing industry is good enough so he began to swift his business to services industry. He got a evil idea: since he is the richest person around and everybody trust him, he can make his own money more powerful and use that to get what ever he want. He began to ask his financial adviser, Federal Reserve to print more money and use it to exchange goods with other people. What ever he want he can just print more money and get it. Not only that, he began to use his own saving from his previous agriculture work and manufacturing work to exchange more goods from others and he live in a very comfortable life. When his printing machine broke down, he borrowed money from others and continue his colorful live and buy what ever he want.
Finally now he is broke. He has no more saving and he own a lot of money to others. His only way of getting more money is by printing it. However he refuse to go back to basic and start all over again, instead he continue to use his printing machine and print more money. He still think his money worth as much as before but that's not true. Soon, other people will realize his money is as worthless as a piece of paper and they won't exchange goods with him. He got no farm, no factory and he doesn't want to open one as he still think services industry is the best. Worse, he still trusted his financial adviser, Federal Reserve and still give him all the power to destroy his life.
What do you think is the ending of this man called America? He survive the problem? How? By printing more money?
He got into his problem now because he printed a lot of money and to solve it is print more money?
Even if he does survive the problem, what's next? he will reopen his farm and factory or he will continue the way of living just like before the problem?
America came from a poor family. He was bullied by other kid when he was in his youth. His friend, Spain and Britain always bullied him and he lived in fear. Those friend took away his money and freedom.
However he didn't want that to happen so thanks to his brave heart and determination, he fought back. Eventually he succeed. Spain and Britain never bullied him anymore.
So he started to work hard since he knew the only man that can help him is none other than himself. He worked his ass off as an agriculture worker and started his own farm as he knew everybody need to eat.
He then earned a lot of money from agriculture industry. However he got a new idea. He thought agriculture is good but the earning from it is very thin. Soon, he started his manufacturing work and began to produce manufacturing goods. He opened his own factory and enhance his production line. His products were sold around the world and everybody seems to like it. He became the richest man in the world. He opened more factory and produced variety of goods to meet the demand of everyone.
Then he made the single biggest mistake of his life. He appointed his friend, Federal Reserve as his financial consultant and give him the full control over his account. At the beginning, Federal Reserve worked well so America trusted him even more and give him more power.
Then disaster struck. A new gangster group named axis started bully everyone around America including his old foe, Britain. This gangster group, led by a man called Germany wanted to conquer the whole neighborhood. So Britain came and asked America for help since America is very rich and powerful. Luckily though America had a very smart friend called Albert Einstein. Einstein help America Defeated Axis. Britain and America finally became friend again.
After that America began control the neighborhood using his wealth superiority. He didn't think manufacturing industry is good enough so he began to swift his business to services industry. He got a evil idea: since he is the richest person around and everybody trust him, he can make his own money more powerful and use that to get what ever he want. He began to ask his financial adviser, Federal Reserve to print more money and use it to exchange goods with other people. What ever he want he can just print more money and get it. Not only that, he began to use his own saving from his previous agriculture work and manufacturing work to exchange more goods from others and he live in a very comfortable life. When his printing machine broke down, he borrowed money from others and continue his colorful live and buy what ever he want.
Finally now he is broke. He has no more saving and he own a lot of money to others. His only way of getting more money is by printing it. However he refuse to go back to basic and start all over again, instead he continue to use his printing machine and print more money. He still think his money worth as much as before but that's not true. Soon, other people will realize his money is as worthless as a piece of paper and they won't exchange goods with him. He got no farm, no factory and he doesn't want to open one as he still think services industry is the best. Worse, he still trusted his financial adviser, Federal Reserve and still give him all the power to destroy his life.
What do you think is the ending of this man called America? He survive the problem? How? By printing more money?
He got into his problem now because he printed a lot of money and to solve it is print more money?
Even if he does survive the problem, what's next? he will reopen his farm and factory or he will continue the way of living just like before the problem?
24.11.08
My Very First "Buy" Recommendation For You All.
Well i never write any recommendation to buy any counter as i feel world stock market will collapse buy I think I wanna do that today. If you do not believe me, you can ignore me and forget about it but if you believe me give it a try.
2899.HK Zijin Mining.(p=2.24)
I'm sure everybody knows what happen to gold last friday. So try trade the counter and tale your profit before end of the day.
2600.HK Chalco.(p=2.90)
Everybody knows this is the worst performing HSI component counter of them all. It's time for it to roll. Trade it for few days but remember timing is essential.
0016 HK SHK Property. (p=52)
It's now at 52 but once it was a >150 dollar counter. It's "mother" 0086 SHK trading at less than 3X PE and it's the most valuable and certainly best developer in HK. Need i say more?
BHP Asx (p=21.90)
world largest mining company got hammered hard since few months ago and now trading at around 22.22. Attrative enough?
CSCO NYSE (p=15.17)
We all know last week CSCO was hammered only because bad report by some so-called "expert". Do the opposite thing!
TSM, NYSE (p=6.51)
Taiwan Semiconductor rally more than 11% last friday in US and traded at 6.47. Wait for better price and go for it. 6.30 maybe a great entry price. Trade it either in Taiwan or US.
That's all for now. I will do my trading now and i hope we'll have a profitable trading day.
2899.HK Zijin Mining.(p=2.24)
I'm sure everybody knows what happen to gold last friday. So try trade the counter and tale your profit before end of the day.
2600.HK Chalco.(p=2.90)
Everybody knows this is the worst performing HSI component counter of them all. It's time for it to roll. Trade it for few days but remember timing is essential.
0016 HK SHK Property. (p=52)
It's now at 52 but once it was a >150 dollar counter. It's "mother" 0086 SHK trading at less than 3X PE and it's the most valuable and certainly best developer in HK. Need i say more?
BHP Asx (p=21.90)
world largest mining company got hammered hard since few months ago and now trading at around 22.22. Attrative enough?
CSCO NYSE (p=15.17)
We all know last week CSCO was hammered only because bad report by some so-called "expert". Do the opposite thing!
TSM, NYSE (p=6.51)
Taiwan Semiconductor rally more than 11% last friday in US and traded at 6.47. Wait for better price and go for it. 6.30 maybe a great entry price. Trade it either in Taiwan or US.
That's all for now. I will do my trading now and i hope we'll have a profitable trading day.
20.11.08
Long Way To Go
When I started this blog last august i already warned you this crisis is the biggest ever in human history. This crisis is so big because unlike previous crisis, US is broke now. They owe Russia, Japan, China, India, Middle East and other countries trillions of dollar in the form of T-bill. US can't do like what they did in 1929 or 1979 anymore. They can't spend money to boost their economy because they are broke. In other word, we still have long way to go.
Dow close below 8k point. First time in 5 years and S/P 500 just 6.58 point above 800 level. 5 Years ago, Federal Reserve led by Alan Greenspan did a historical thing which is lowered the interest rate to 1%. So in other word, the business cycle only goes around once. Dow back to their 2003 level and interest rate back to their 2003 level which is 1%. That mean if you start buying stock at 2003, theoretically you are break even now. So where are the credit crisis?
That's why I said we still have long way to go. I think we will have this type of stock market at least until President Obama next Presidential election. Based on so many bad economy data, do you think Dow reach it's bottom only 42-43% of it's high? Not even 50% off for the biggest economic crisis? you definitely underestimate the power of this credit crisis and forget who is in control, stock market or economy as a whole?
Like I said many times, stock market crash did not and will never contribute to any crisis, recession or depression. It's the crisis, recession or depression that contribute to stock market crash.
Yesterday i read a very interesting article on when our stock market/ economy will recover and it's from a famous financial website. It said in best case scenario, World economy and stock market will reach its bottom end of this year and start recover next year. However the worst case scenario, stock market/ economic will reach its bottom on second quarter of 2009 and start recover on third quarter 2009.
Well, How can anybody in this world know when economy will recover? economy/ stock market bottoming on second quarter next year is the worst scenario? Give me a break.
Another important topic: Fair value vs Stabilizing. US official always try to stabilize price of US assets. They try to stabilize house price, share price, bond price etc. Well, the true fact is that those assets are overpriced then and overpriced now. What they did is not stabilizing but preventing those assets from dropping back to it's fair value. Every analyst in this world said stock market all over the world is cheap now but i think it's still expensive. It's still way above it's fair value.
If a stock's fair value is 1.00 and now trading at 2.50. Yes you can still make profit from it because of greater fool or turtle rules where high will go higher. However if that stock drop to 1.50 and you think it's cheap, you have a big chance of losing another 50 cents. No matter how hard government or investor try to prevent it from going to 1.00, eventually free market will prevail and normally if anybody try to fight free market, it will teach you a lesson and give you 0.75.
Same for US now, the harder US official try to prevent recession and stock market plunge, the worse it will create.
Trade Carefully and remember cash and risk management is king.
Dow close below 8k point. First time in 5 years and S/P 500 just 6.58 point above 800 level. 5 Years ago, Federal Reserve led by Alan Greenspan did a historical thing which is lowered the interest rate to 1%. So in other word, the business cycle only goes around once. Dow back to their 2003 level and interest rate back to their 2003 level which is 1%. That mean if you start buying stock at 2003, theoretically you are break even now. So where are the credit crisis?
That's why I said we still have long way to go. I think we will have this type of stock market at least until President Obama next Presidential election. Based on so many bad economy data, do you think Dow reach it's bottom only 42-43% of it's high? Not even 50% off for the biggest economic crisis? you definitely underestimate the power of this credit crisis and forget who is in control, stock market or economy as a whole?
Like I said many times, stock market crash did not and will never contribute to any crisis, recession or depression. It's the crisis, recession or depression that contribute to stock market crash.
Yesterday i read a very interesting article on when our stock market/ economy will recover and it's from a famous financial website. It said in best case scenario, World economy and stock market will reach its bottom end of this year and start recover next year. However the worst case scenario, stock market/ economic will reach its bottom on second quarter of 2009 and start recover on third quarter 2009.
Well, How can anybody in this world know when economy will recover? economy/ stock market bottoming on second quarter next year is the worst scenario? Give me a break.
Another important topic: Fair value vs Stabilizing. US official always try to stabilize price of US assets. They try to stabilize house price, share price, bond price etc. Well, the true fact is that those assets are overpriced then and overpriced now. What they did is not stabilizing but preventing those assets from dropping back to it's fair value. Every analyst in this world said stock market all over the world is cheap now but i think it's still expensive. It's still way above it's fair value.
If a stock's fair value is 1.00 and now trading at 2.50. Yes you can still make profit from it because of greater fool or turtle rules where high will go higher. However if that stock drop to 1.50 and you think it's cheap, you have a big chance of losing another 50 cents. No matter how hard government or investor try to prevent it from going to 1.00, eventually free market will prevail and normally if anybody try to fight free market, it will teach you a lesson and give you 0.75.
Same for US now, the harder US official try to prevent recession and stock market plunge, the worse it will create.
Trade Carefully and remember cash and risk management is king.
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