As we all know, one of the essence of stock market prediction is knowledge so I will suggest some of the knowledge of stock market based on my shallow experience and education. Remember this, you can get this knowledge by either education, experience or even from good investment and trading book.
First of all we can divide knowledge of stock market investment and trading into 3 major parts: fundamental analysis, technical analysis and economic environment analysis. Each of these three analysis are essential for us to predict the future and gain some handsome profit.
However before i begin, here are some of the thing everyone should remember: never target to buy at lowest and sell at highest. We all know we should buy low and sell high but remember, we can't get the lowest price to buy and highest price to sell simply because we are not David Rockefeller. And No, we should buy when the price is low as we will never know "how low is low".
So when should we buy and sell?
We buy when we find out that there is a confirmation of a uptrend and we sell when we get the confirmation of a down trend. When the uptrend confirmation reached, the price is not necessary low but we significantly increase our chances of getting a return for our investment and that's pretty much investment is all about.
One more thing: never regret selling too fast when price continue to rise and vice versa. We sell because we get the downtrend confirmation and not because the price reach the top. A winning trade is a winning trade. Don't fell bad when this situation happen. You should fell please avoid a loss and get a reasonable amount of gain.
Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis mean the usage of fundamental data from single company to predict the future stock movement. Generally fundamental analysis aimed for medium to long term investment. There are hundreds of fundamental analysis tools available. However i will only highlight some of it. I will divide it into 2 categories: useful and useless.
Useful
1. NTA / share.
NTA or net tangible asset per share is my personal favorite tools for FA simply because it work every time. NTA actually represent the actual value of a company and NTA / share represent the actual value of a single stock. Generally if a share traded below its NTA / share value, it's a buy.
If you carefully examine NTA / share you will generally find one trend. Share price of a Big company (blue chip) in general is higher than its NTA / share as the demand for blue chip company is relatively higher that medium and small cap. So should we follow the rest and buy blue chips or we should buy medium and small cap that provide us with a below NTA / share opportunity?
In my opinion, we should choose the second option. Every great investor including Mr buffett is telling us that we should buy blue chip but remember this: Mr Buffett made his fortune by investing in Berkshire Hathaway, a small company that had lot of potential.
I am not recommend you to buy any medium to small cap but rather choose medium to small cap company that traded below NTA / price. If you manage to find a blue chip with below NTA / share price, grab it!!!
2. Return on Equity
We invest in a company and become one of the owner of the company because we think it's a potential and profitable company. So we would like the company to perform well in the future but how would we know the company will do well in the future? Yes, using past data. Return on equity is a rather useful tool to target a potential great company. If a company maintain double digit ROE in the past 10 years or so, what make you think the company can't continue the trend. That's why ROE provide us the valuable information on the management quality to maintain profit and return on our investment.
3. Gearing Ratio
AKA risk ratio provide us the risk involved for investing in a company. Company with high Gearing ratio usually will has high fluctuation. That mean greater movement in stock price. Since Fundamental Analysis aim at long term, consistent return investment, company with lower gearing ratio is my choice. It provide us with steady return with low risk and that's sweet!
Useless
1. P/E ratio.
Yes, P/E ratio is one of the useless ratio. Although it is probably the most famous FA tool and used widely by investment banks in their analysis, it is absolutely useless. We will never know which is better, high P/E or low P/E. High P/E mean high demand and low P/E mean great value.
I've seen company with really low P/E ratio stay underperformed for more than 10 years. I've also seen company with negative P/E ratio maintained its high price for more than 5 years.
Look at all the market movers. They are stocks with high PE and negative PE and yet they still lead the market one way or the other.
So basically PE ratio is the absolute useless tools to find valuable and potential company.
2. Current Ratio / Quick Ratio.
To be honest, current ratio or quick ratio is one of the most famous but useless ratio. As everyone know, difference between current ratio and quick ratio is inventory. Both ratios offer no help to you to find a potential company as they only give you very limited information about short term solvency of a company.
Company in different sector will provide different value of CR or QR. Example consumer sector companies normally have high CR /QR while property and construction companies normally have low / below 1 CR / QR.
So the figure never give you any information how good a company is.
Technical Analysis
Technical analysis is much more complicated than FA. Generally TA provide relatively shorter term information on market movement or stock movement. TA involve use of chart to analyze the market.
TA is crucial to predict short term market movement and an expert in TA will have more than 80% chance of correctly predicting the market.
So what you need to predict the market in short term?
1. Moving Average.
Moving average is probably the most important tool of TA. It provide support and resistance level for us and based on my experience, more than 90% of the time simple moving average (SMA) will work as support and resistance.
However, you may wonder what the number of SMA to use.
For index and commodity, you should use 18, 45, 100 while for single stock the magic number is 10, 20, 60, 100, 200. Example if you are looking at 1 minutes chart of an index, what you need is SMA of 18 minutes, 45 minutes and 100 minutes.
2. Fibonacci
Fibonacci is another absolutely important tool of TA. Like SMA, it provide crucial information on support and resistance. Together with SMA, it provide an ultimate support and resistance data with accuracy of more than 95%!
At you need to do is tick the lowest and highest point of a run and look at 68.2%, 50%, 38.2% level of that run. It will serve as either support or resistance of the counter move.
Example, stock market spiked up for the last 3 weeks. So now if market reverse which i think will happen, 68.2% of that spiked up run will be our first level of support, 50% will be our second support level and 38.2% will be our third support level. If market brake 38.2% support, then most probably market headed toward the original point of that spiked up run.
3. Elliot Wave.
Elliot wave is a super complicated tool of TA and it is so accurate i think all investor and trader should learn. Although Elliot wave provide no precise information on the market, it tell you where you are and where the market is headed. You can't know how many point market will rise or drop but you can know when market will rise and drop and where it is heading to.
Elliot wave use a simple 3 wave pattern for bearish market and 5 wave pattern for bullish market to predict the market and believe it or not, it work most of the time. Besides that, you can use it to predict the market in short term or long term.
4. RSI
Relative strength index is another popular TA tool. It provide fairly good information on the movement on the market. When RSI reach 70 or above , the market is said to be overbought while RSI 30 or below is said to be oversold. Market tend to reverse after that.
However, RSI only suitable for index and commodity and not suitable for stock. Stock can reach as high as 99 on RSI and stay there for sometime so beware.
5. Stochastic
Stochastic is highly important TA tool which basically tell you either the market is overbought or oversold. Unlike RSI, stochastic work for index, commodity, stocks or other financial assets.
You should always use fast stochastic with 14 period as it provide more accurate data.
Stochastic analysis involve 2 lines: K line (usually black) and D line (usually red). In normally circumstances, when K line crosses D line, market will reverse. Of course to confirm the reversal movement, we usually wait for one of two trading period to confirm.
Economic Environment Analysis.
Economic environment analysis mean predict the market movement using economic indicator such as interest rate, inflation rate and unemployment rate.
To master this analysis, you should either go through a good education system, read a lot of investment and economic books, or have years of experience in investment.
Although this analysis does not feels very complicated, it's actually the hardest part to master. Most traders or investors do not understand economic environment analysis thoroughly but they think they do.
It's far more difficult to predict the economy than to predict the market and remember: it's the economy which affect the financial market and not the other way around.
Financial market go up will not cause the economy to improve but rather because of improved economy. Worsened economy cause the stock market to tumble and not the other way around.
Conclusion
First of all, I am not saying i am at expert in predicting the market. I am only a regular guy who went through some years of education and have some experience in financial market.
Also, I am not saying you must use those tools to predict the market. I just found out those tools are good enough for you to correctly predict the market. I truly believe you will be able to do that with those tools i recommend. FA + TA + EEA = more than 80% successful rate.
Do your homework and profit isn't far away!
3.8.09
One Of The Best Video on Youtube (Don Harrold)
For me, this is a very good video from Don Harrold at Youtube. I consider it as one of the best. Don address this in absolute pinpoint way.
Are You Ready?
Last year, almost all Economists, Analysts, Leaders, bankers, financial program hosts, billionaires, columnists, critics, journalists, blog writers, investors, speculators, traders, CNBC team (Jim Cramer, Larry Kudlow, Fast Money gang......), and everybody else said this economic slow down is the worst since Great Depression 1929 and world war 2.
For those of you who does not know much about The Great Depression, you will misunderstand what those people mean.
Most of us think Great Depression ended at 1933 but actually world economic did not recover fully until end of world war 2 so we can even paired Great Depression and World War 2 together as the single most destructive economic problem in the history of earth.
So here we are in August of 2009, around 6/7 quarters of economic misery (slow down started at last quarter of 2007 but some argue recession started at first quarter 2008), suddenly every thing is going fine. We can 1-2 month of crazy surge in stock market and those people that told us "this is the time since GD" suddenly say "we are recovering".
Some Asia country recorded really strong GDP figure such as S. Korea, China and Singapore while western countries such as England and US still show weak GDP data.
So how can one of the worst recession or even depression in human history only lasted for 6/7 quarters?
Well you may say it's the wisdom of world economic leaders that save the world.
However I don't agree at all. Can you tell me what our Leaders did for the past 6-7 quarters?
Appeared on TV and said "the recession is worse than we thought and we need stimulus"
In other word, our leaders only spent huge amount of money.
So if Spending a lot of money is the cure, then why should this problem called the worst recession since GD 1929?
So what I mean is either this recession is not a problem at all or we haven't solve our problem at all. I prefer the second.
Spending money led us to this recession and spending money will lead us out? How stuopid do we need to be to suggest this.
From 1500 to 1929, every country in the world who used Adam Smith's free market or laissez-faire system only experienced 1 major economic crash while from 1929 to 2009, we had at least 5 major economic crashes.
You must be wondered what happened in 1929 that led to a series of economic crisis (except Great Depression, of course). Yes, Keynesian theory of economics created.
So back to our topic, if you think the worst economic crisis since GD 1929 end now after only 6-7 quarters, buy!
However if you think the worst economic crisis since GD 1929 will last longer than 6-7 quarters, the get ready to short. Collect it from time to time. You will be rewarded.
For those of you who does not know much about The Great Depression, you will misunderstand what those people mean.
Most of us think Great Depression ended at 1933 but actually world economic did not recover fully until end of world war 2 so we can even paired Great Depression and World War 2 together as the single most destructive economic problem in the history of earth.
So here we are in August of 2009, around 6/7 quarters of economic misery (slow down started at last quarter of 2007 but some argue recession started at first quarter 2008), suddenly every thing is going fine. We can 1-2 month of crazy surge in stock market and those people that told us "this is the time since GD" suddenly say "we are recovering".
Some Asia country recorded really strong GDP figure such as S. Korea, China and Singapore while western countries such as England and US still show weak GDP data.
So how can one of the worst recession or even depression in human history only lasted for 6/7 quarters?
Well you may say it's the wisdom of world economic leaders that save the world.
However I don't agree at all. Can you tell me what our Leaders did for the past 6-7 quarters?
Appeared on TV and said "the recession is worse than we thought and we need stimulus"
In other word, our leaders only spent huge amount of money.
So if Spending a lot of money is the cure, then why should this problem called the worst recession since GD 1929?
So what I mean is either this recession is not a problem at all or we haven't solve our problem at all. I prefer the second.
Spending money led us to this recession and spending money will lead us out? How stuopid do we need to be to suggest this.
From 1500 to 1929, every country in the world who used Adam Smith's free market or laissez-faire system only experienced 1 major economic crash while from 1929 to 2009, we had at least 5 major economic crashes.
You must be wondered what happened in 1929 that led to a series of economic crisis (except Great Depression, of course). Yes, Keynesian theory of economics created.
So back to our topic, if you think the worst economic crisis since GD 1929 end now after only 6-7 quarters, buy!
However if you think the worst economic crisis since GD 1929 will last longer than 6-7 quarters, the get ready to short. Collect it from time to time. You will be rewarded.
28.7.09
Invisible hand VS Invisible inflation
Invisible hand VS invisible inflation is my title today. I assume everybody does not know what is invisible hand so i gonna tell you (again).
Invisible hand was probably the most significant Economic term created by Adam smith, the father of modern economics, in his book, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations or sometime only known as Wealth of Nations (WON). A lot of economist try to describe the term in some very hard-to-understand way. So i will try to explain the term in the simplest way.
Every entity in the Economic such as you and me only care for ourselves and we shall choose the option of economy that benefited us the most. When every entity does that, it will create a market force called "INVISIBLE HAND" that will correct any unwanted or unhealthy economic problem such as inflation, unemployment, and so on.
In other word, we do not need regulator, the market which include everyone will correct ourselves. Example when prices of computer is high, we do not need government to implement price ceiling policy. We simply do not buy it (demand lowered) and hence the prices will drop again.
However, this is not the way our world is working. Every country on the planet do not like the idea and instead choose Keynesian theory of economic.
According to Keynesian, we need regulators such as government.
back to our topic, most of the country in the world recorded negative inflation rate, also known as deflation rate which mean continuously drop in the overall prices for the last few months.
Almost everyone blamed the Great Depression of 2007/8/9 as the sole reason it happened.
However, I DO NOT THINK SO......
We recorded deflation simply because we use Consumer Price Index (CPI) to measure the overall prices of all the products in the market.
Let me ask you a simple question: besides gasoline / petrol, anything around our everyday life became cheaper for the last 6 months?
Food? Cloth? public transport? bank charges? beauty products?
Anything became cheaper? Yes: price of properties, prices of commodities and prices of shares which have very small impact on the average life of a regular family.
So in other word, what we experiencing now is called deflationary asset prices and not deflationary goods / services prices.
For decades, leaders and regulators are telling us in order to achieve relatively high economic growth, we need to sacrifice moderate rate of inflation. Keynesian theory of economic really pinned into the mind of our leaders and regulators.
So according to Keynesian, US is the richest country in the world since US has the highest GDP figure in the world (25% of world GDP).
However US own 70% of total world debt. So, late John Maynard Keynes or any Keynesian Economist, can you explain this?
Invisible hand was probably the most significant Economic term created by Adam smith, the father of modern economics, in his book, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations or sometime only known as Wealth of Nations (WON). A lot of economist try to describe the term in some very hard-to-understand way. So i will try to explain the term in the simplest way.
Every entity in the Economic such as you and me only care for ourselves and we shall choose the option of economy that benefited us the most. When every entity does that, it will create a market force called "INVISIBLE HAND" that will correct any unwanted or unhealthy economic problem such as inflation, unemployment, and so on.
In other word, we do not need regulator, the market which include everyone will correct ourselves. Example when prices of computer is high, we do not need government to implement price ceiling policy. We simply do not buy it (demand lowered) and hence the prices will drop again.
However, this is not the way our world is working. Every country on the planet do not like the idea and instead choose Keynesian theory of economic.
According to Keynesian, we need regulators such as government.
back to our topic, most of the country in the world recorded negative inflation rate, also known as deflation rate which mean continuously drop in the overall prices for the last few months.
Almost everyone blamed the Great Depression of 2007/8/9 as the sole reason it happened.
However, I DO NOT THINK SO......
We recorded deflation simply because we use Consumer Price Index (CPI) to measure the overall prices of all the products in the market.
Let me ask you a simple question: besides gasoline / petrol, anything around our everyday life became cheaper for the last 6 months?
Food? Cloth? public transport? bank charges? beauty products?
Anything became cheaper? Yes: price of properties, prices of commodities and prices of shares which have very small impact on the average life of a regular family.
So in other word, what we experiencing now is called deflationary asset prices and not deflationary goods / services prices.
For decades, leaders and regulators are telling us in order to achieve relatively high economic growth, we need to sacrifice moderate rate of inflation. Keynesian theory of economic really pinned into the mind of our leaders and regulators.
So according to Keynesian, US is the richest country in the world since US has the highest GDP figure in the world (25% of world GDP).
However US own 70% of total world debt. So, late John Maynard Keynes or any Keynesian Economist, can you explain this?
25.7.09
Market Rallied 5% - 15% In The Past 2 Weeks - Economic Recovery?
Market all over the world is in a buying frenzy in the past 2 weeks or so. Some market rallied as much as 15%. Wow, that's around 1% a day. Something really big are happening.
Wait, what happened in the past 2-3 weeks that got us all into the buying frenzy? does this mean we are out of Recession? Does this mean Economic is recovering? Or better still, Recovered?
Let's analyze...
1. Company financial result.
One of the most important reason market rallied is companies' better than expected financial result for the second quarter of 2009.
What is better than expected financial result? Who is expecting what kind of result?
So few so called "analyst" gave their expectation on a company's financial result and when the actual result exceed it, we buy?
Is that how we decide to buy the share of a company?
So if those "analyst" gave some very ridiculously low expectation and the actual result exceed it by miles, the company is suddenly on the right track again?
This is what happened in the past 2 weeks, some analyst gave some ridiculously low level of expectation and almost certainly below the actual financial result. The actual result are not as good as everybody think, you know.
2. Overall Economy Condition
Overall economy condition look like recovering. In US, some important sectors are improving. Housing sector, Health care, Transportation and banking sector all are improving. Or is it?
Did unemployment rate dropped? Did consumer confidence improving? Did commodities improving along side stock market as well? NO.
Everything is still as bad as before except for few "better that expected" figure in a few sectors. Come on, you don't believe those analyst that told you to buy at Dow 14,000 in 2007, do you?
Today, UK announce their second quarter GDP data and guess what, here's the result:
The Office for National Statistics said GDP fell by 0.8 per cent on the quarter, taking the annual decline to 5.6 per cent. Analysts had forecast a quarterly decline of just 0.3 per cent after a hefty 2.4 per cent drop in the first quarter.
Remember UK is the first developed country to announce their GDP data. What fo you think will happen to the rest of the world?
3. China
Is China the main reason we rallied? No. Is China a reason we rallied, ABSOLUTELY YES!
China Economic Growth accelerates to 7.9%. That a huge boost for China and whole Asia. Or is it?
Remember what happened to the second quarter of 2008 when we all thought economic recovering was on its way and suddenly in third quarter everything became horrible? Will it be happening again? You decide...
4. Fear Index
Volatility Index, known as Fear Index is declining in fast pace signaling Economic Recovering.
here are the chart of VIX for the past 6 months.
I am no expert in Technical Analysis but my brain is telling me a heavy drop like this will result in a heavy bounce and a heavy bounce in VIX will result in slump in stock market.
Anything else? you tell me. For me, one word can summarize the reason market rallied all over the world: SPECULATION. Everyone is speculating the economy will recover and want a piece of it. However in reality, fundamental of economy does not change at all.
After all, if we can solve the biggest slowdown since THE GREAT DEPRESSION with just money and 2 quarters of negative growth, we would not call it the biggest recession since TGD.
So what do we got? YES, SHORTING OPPORTUNITY! Prepare you ammo, ready to shoot it down!
Wait, what happened in the past 2-3 weeks that got us all into the buying frenzy? does this mean we are out of Recession? Does this mean Economic is recovering? Or better still, Recovered?
Let's analyze...
1. Company financial result.
One of the most important reason market rallied is companies' better than expected financial result for the second quarter of 2009.
What is better than expected financial result? Who is expecting what kind of result?
So few so called "analyst" gave their expectation on a company's financial result and when the actual result exceed it, we buy?
Is that how we decide to buy the share of a company?
So if those "analyst" gave some very ridiculously low expectation and the actual result exceed it by miles, the company is suddenly on the right track again?
This is what happened in the past 2 weeks, some analyst gave some ridiculously low level of expectation and almost certainly below the actual financial result. The actual result are not as good as everybody think, you know.
2. Overall Economy Condition
Overall economy condition look like recovering. In US, some important sectors are improving. Housing sector, Health care, Transportation and banking sector all are improving. Or is it?
Did unemployment rate dropped? Did consumer confidence improving? Did commodities improving along side stock market as well? NO.
Everything is still as bad as before except for few "better that expected" figure in a few sectors. Come on, you don't believe those analyst that told you to buy at Dow 14,000 in 2007, do you?
Today, UK announce their second quarter GDP data and guess what, here's the result:
The Office for National Statistics said GDP fell by 0.8 per cent on the quarter, taking the annual decline to 5.6 per cent. Analysts had forecast a quarterly decline of just 0.3 per cent after a hefty 2.4 per cent drop in the first quarter.
Remember UK is the first developed country to announce their GDP data. What fo you think will happen to the rest of the world?
3. China
Is China the main reason we rallied? No. Is China a reason we rallied, ABSOLUTELY YES!
China Economic Growth accelerates to 7.9%. That a huge boost for China and whole Asia. Or is it?
Remember what happened to the second quarter of 2008 when we all thought economic recovering was on its way and suddenly in third quarter everything became horrible? Will it be happening again? You decide...
4. Fear Index
Volatility Index, known as Fear Index is declining in fast pace signaling Economic Recovering.
here are the chart of VIX for the past 6 months.
I am no expert in Technical Analysis but my brain is telling me a heavy drop like this will result in a heavy bounce and a heavy bounce in VIX will result in slump in stock market.
Anything else? you tell me. For me, one word can summarize the reason market rallied all over the world: SPECULATION. Everyone is speculating the economy will recover and want a piece of it. However in reality, fundamental of economy does not change at all.
After all, if we can solve the biggest slowdown since THE GREAT DEPRESSION with just money and 2 quarters of negative growth, we would not call it the biggest recession since TGD.
So what do we got? YES, SHORTING OPPORTUNITY! Prepare you ammo, ready to shoot it down!
23.7.09
Teoh Beng Hock's Death: Let eliminate some possibilities
For all Malaysians, Teoh Beng Hock was probably the most frequent speaking name since last week. He was the political secretary of Selangor Assemblyman and Exco Ean Yong Hian Wah.
Chief of Police has warned everyone not to speculate the death of Teoh Beng Hock so i won't. However i will try to eliminate some possibilities regarding his death.
1. Suicide: before we relate Teoh's death to suicide, we must first understand why a person will attempt sucide. Suicide may occur for a number of reasons, including depression, shame, guilt, desperation, physical pain, emotional pressure, anxiety, financial difficulties, or other undesirable situations.
Back to Teoh's case, he was a responsible and man. He was financially healthy and had a wonderful family. He had been planning to register his marriage with his engaged and pregnant girl friend the day following his death.
Ss was Teoh suicide? you decide...
2. Accident: Teoh was a 30 year old healthy person. He was not a disable person. The window which Teoh fell down is 3 feet above the ground. So imagine Teoh opened the window, accidently fell down from 14th floor with a 3 feet barricade....... hard to imagine though.
So what else? ooooop, i can't write further since the police warned us not to speculate.
SUICIDE? ACCIDENT? OTHER REASON? YOU DECIDE ......
Chief of Police has warned everyone not to speculate the death of Teoh Beng Hock so i won't. However i will try to eliminate some possibilities regarding his death.
1. Suicide: before we relate Teoh's death to suicide, we must first understand why a person will attempt sucide. Suicide may occur for a number of reasons, including depression, shame, guilt, desperation, physical pain, emotional pressure, anxiety, financial difficulties, or other undesirable situations.
Back to Teoh's case, he was a responsible and man. He was financially healthy and had a wonderful family. He had been planning to register his marriage with his engaged and pregnant girl friend the day following his death.
Ss was Teoh suicide? you decide...
2. Accident: Teoh was a 30 year old healthy person. He was not a disable person. The window which Teoh fell down is 3 feet above the ground. So imagine Teoh opened the window, accidently fell down from 14th floor with a 3 feet barricade....... hard to imagine though.
So what else? ooooop, i can't write further since the police warned us not to speculate.
SUICIDE? ACCIDENT? OTHER REASON? YOU DECIDE ......
At last, I'm Back
Wow, after few months absent, i am back.
Well, i am here today to offer my thought on overall stock market and some blockbuster films that i watched.
Remember the most famous quote of Warren Buffett:
"We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful."
Well if you follow Mr Buffett and start buying at Dow 6500 where everyone is fearful, you are making really big profit now.
However everyone is greedy now and stock market all over the world are carry upward by the raging bull. Most Asian stock market reach the highest point of 2009 this week. Eu market and US market are near their year high.
Reason? better than expected companies' financial result and comment by many analyst including Nouriel Roubini.
Recession is over!!!!! Or is it?
Remember the quote: we should be fearful when others are greedy!
So everyone is buying now. Ever wonder who is selling?
Yes, Companies' major shareholders.
They are clearing their position and getting away from this huge rally.
And YES, GET READY TO SHORT, you don't wanna miss the opportunity. Concentrate on the market that has risen more than 7% since last week. Do you math!
Go for options, futures or shares, just prepare to short the market.
Ok enough for stock market. I am watching more than 10 movies since last week and wanna share with you my thought on some of them although i am quite sure most of you have watched these movies.
Harry Potter and Last Half Blood Prince - Best in the series, must watch for harry potter fan. Highly recommended.
Transformer: Revenge of the Fallen: One of the worst movie i have ever seen. Wonder why it broke so many box-office record. Feels like going through heavy metal concert with a lousy singer. Recommended if you are deaf but not blind because of Megan Fox!
Ice Age Dawn Of The Dinosaurs: Good movie, although not best in the series. Scrat is Still the main attraction and 3D animation for this film is just great.
Land of the Lost: Movie that will make you lost. It will make you wonder why you spend your hard earned money and go through 90 minutes of boredom. Unless you are will farrell's fan, forget it.
Public Enemies: I love this movie. Johnny Deep is still solid as usual and bank robberies scene really make the movie that much better. If you want action movie, this is the one for you.
The proposal: in my opinion, The proposal matched up great cast with stupid story. Sandra Bullock and Ryan Reynolds are great but the story really turn it down.
So here's what you should do next: go watch harry potter and prepare to short the market next week or a week after that!
Well, i am here today to offer my thought on overall stock market and some blockbuster films that i watched.
Remember the most famous quote of Warren Buffett:
"We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful."
Well if you follow Mr Buffett and start buying at Dow 6500 where everyone is fearful, you are making really big profit now.
However everyone is greedy now and stock market all over the world are carry upward by the raging bull. Most Asian stock market reach the highest point of 2009 this week. Eu market and US market are near their year high.
Reason? better than expected companies' financial result and comment by many analyst including Nouriel Roubini.
Recession is over!!!!! Or is it?
Remember the quote: we should be fearful when others are greedy!
So everyone is buying now. Ever wonder who is selling?
Yes, Companies' major shareholders.
They are clearing their position and getting away from this huge rally.
And YES, GET READY TO SHORT, you don't wanna miss the opportunity. Concentrate on the market that has risen more than 7% since last week. Do you math!
Go for options, futures or shares, just prepare to short the market.
Ok enough for stock market. I am watching more than 10 movies since last week and wanna share with you my thought on some of them although i am quite sure most of you have watched these movies.
Harry Potter and Last Half Blood Prince - Best in the series, must watch for harry potter fan. Highly recommended.
Transformer: Revenge of the Fallen: One of the worst movie i have ever seen. Wonder why it broke so many box-office record. Feels like going through heavy metal concert with a lousy singer. Recommended if you are deaf but not blind because of Megan Fox!
Ice Age Dawn Of The Dinosaurs: Good movie, although not best in the series. Scrat is Still the main attraction and 3D animation for this film is just great.
Land of the Lost: Movie that will make you lost. It will make you wonder why you spend your hard earned money and go through 90 minutes of boredom. Unless you are will farrell's fan, forget it.
Public Enemies: I love this movie. Johnny Deep is still solid as usual and bank robberies scene really make the movie that much better. If you want action movie, this is the one for you.
The proposal: in my opinion, The proposal matched up great cast with stupid story. Sandra Bullock and Ryan Reynolds are great but the story really turn it down.
So here's what you should do next: go watch harry potter and prepare to short the market next week or a week after that!
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