I am an amateur in TA and this is the first time i publish such an analysis.
Now this is a monthly chart going back to 1999. I believe the 5 waves uptrend ends at early 2008 and we are going down.
Just look at the similarity between these 2 periods: mid 2006 to early 2008 high vs early 2009 to last month's high. Look at the momentum, macd and stochastic. everything is virtually identical.
Now i am not saying this market will move back to the floor of around 800 for sure but it sure has pretty good chance of doing that.
